Oppo’s path to reclaim the top spot in Indonesia’s smartphone market faces growing challenges in 2026. A critical issue is the ongoing global shortage of RAM, intensified by high demand for artificial intelligence (AI) data center technologies. This supply crunch threatens Oppo’s goal to reestablish dominance in a fiercely competitive market.
Industry research firm IDC warns that the smartphone sector will experience a structural reset this year. The limited availability of key memory components is expected to reduce global smartphone shipments by nearly 13%, down to about 1.12 billion units in 2026—the lowest in a decade. The scarcity of RAM pushes device prices higher while overall demand weakens, creating a difficult market scenario particularly for lower-tier smartphone manufacturers.
IDC Senior Research Director Nabila Popal explains that the memory crisis not only disrupts production but also reshapes the total addressable market. “We anticipate consolidation as smaller players leave the market, and budget vendors face significant shipment declines,” she noted in a recent statement. The memory price stabilization is projected for 2027, but by then, both vendors and consumers will have adjusted to a new normal, with fewer options and generally higher costs.
Within this complex landscape, Oppo is reportedly considering a strategic merger with Realme to consolidate resources and cut operational expenses. Realme, which separated from Oppo in 2018 to operate independently, might reunify under the parent company BBK Electronics, leveraging synergies to enhance competitiveness. Market analysts suggest this move could boost Oppo’s market share in Indonesia, especially by regaining strength in the entry-level smartphone segment.
According to gadget expert Aryo Meidianto, Oppo’s current focus on mid-to-high-end flagship devices has left a gap in the entry-level market. This shift contributes to Oppo’s recent decline in market position, both domestically and globally. “Oppo alone may struggle to reclaim the crown, but with Realme back in the fold, they could certainly challenge for the number one spot,” Aryo said in an interview. Combining Oppo’s premium lineup with Realme’s budget-friendly range could increase their combined market penetration significantly.
Despite Oppo’s slipping market share, the company remains profitable. Herry SW, another industry observer, highlights that Oppo’s emphasis on premium smartphones—such as foldable and rollable models equipped with advanced AI-powered cameras developed in collaboration with Hasselblad—maintains its financial health. “While volume sales have decreased, Oppo still generates strong value through flagship devices,” Herry explained.
Historically, Oppo led Indonesia’s smartphone market between 2019 and 2021 thanks to its wide product range, including affordable models. Presently, the company risks losing market influence unless it revives its presence in the entry-level segment. Yet, Herry points out a business dilemma: reentering budget smartphone production might not be attractive if profit margins remain slim due to higher component prices and supply constraints.
The memory shortage is a key factor complicating Oppo’s market ambitions. The surge in AI applications worldwide increases demand for high-performance RAM, which suppliers prioritize for server and data center clients. Consumer electronics, including smartphones, face tightened supply as a result. IDC’s outlook depicts a turbulent year ahead for vendors unable to secure sufficient memory components.
Below is a summary of the main challenges Oppo confronts in 2026:
- Global RAM shortage: Drives up costs and limits smartphone production capacity.
- Rising component prices: Force higher retail prices, potentially reducing buyer demand.
- Market fragmentation: Smaller manufacturers exit, leading to intensified competition among remaining brands.
- Strategic restructuring: Oppo considers merging with Realme to improve cost efficiency and market reach.
- Premium focus vs. volume sales: Flagship devices sustain profit but narrow overall market share.
- Pressure from AI-driven supply priorities: Resources diverted to data center equipment reduce consumer product availability.
Adapting to these conditions will be critical for Oppo to regain leadership in Indonesia’s smartphone market. The company’s ability to balance innovation in high-end smartphones with competitive pricing in entry-level devices could determine its future success. Additionally, the outcome of the potential merger with Realme may significantly alter the competitive landscape.
As the market evolves, Oppo’s strategic decisions regarding product lines, supply chain management, and partnerships will influence its capacity to navigate this challenging period. Meanwhile, consumers face a market with fewer low-cost smartphone options and higher prices due to the ongoing memory component squeeze worldwide.
The smartphone industry in Indonesia and globally is thus entering a phase of transformation, marked by supply constraints and shifting demand patterns. Oppo’s ability to overcome these supply chain hurdles and reintegrate Realme could strengthen its competitive position significantly. However, the uncertainty of the memory shortage’s duration means the journey back to the top will be arduous and require agile strategic planning.
