With the World Cup set to begin on June 11, the tournament has already become a race between human judgment and machine-style forecasting. ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon chose a different route and used his own “supercomputer” — his brain — to pick the winner of every match in the expanded 48-team field.
The scale alone changes the logic of prediction. There are 104 matches in the tournament, though O’Hanlon skipped the third-place game, and the larger format adds 38.5% more games than the previous edition.
Why the field is harder to read
The reference model comes from the DTAI Analytics Lab at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium, led by Jesse Davis. It uses Elo ratings and has previously outperformed bookmaker probabilities after removing the vig, but O’Hanlon stresses that it is not betting advice.
That caution matters because the new format creates more uncertainty than past tournaments. Eight third-place teams will also advance, which means a team can still move on without finishing first or second, while the draw can reshape the knockout bracket in ways that are difficult to forecast before the group stage ends.
The early favorites and the most likely group winners
Mexico and Canada both received favorable paths because they host all of their matches at home. Mexico also drew South Korea, Czechia and South Africa, while Canada landed in a group with Switzerland, Bosnia & Herzegovina and Qatar.
That home-field edge drives the first two group forecasts, with Mexico projected to finish on seven points and Canada expected to reach the round of 32 as runners-up behind Switzerland. In Group A, Mexico are forecast to beat South Africa and South Korea, while South Korea edge Czechia for second place.
Brazil, Germany, Spain, France and Argentina also sit among the elite by rating, but the article does not treat them as automatic picks for the title. Instead, it argues that group strength, travel advantage and draw position matter almost as much as raw quality.
Group-stage outcomes that could shape the knockout bracket
Several of the group projections hinge on thin margins. In Group D, for example, the United States, Türkiye and Paraguay are all projected to finish on four points, with Australia eliminated on three points.
Group E is expected to send Germany and Ecuador through, while Group F leans toward Japan finishing first and the Netherlands second. Spain are projected to dominate Group H with a perfect nine points, and France are tipped to win Group I ahead of Norway and Senegal.
A few groups look even tighter. In Group G, Belgium are predicted to finish first, but New Zealand are forecast to surprise by taking second place ahead of Iran and Egypt. In Group K, Colombia are projected to win the group outright, while Portugal would surprisingly finish last.
The round of 32 brings the first major shocks
The knockout bracket is where the projections become more revealing. France are expected to eliminate Germany 2-1 in the standout round-of-16 matchup, while Canada are tipped to beat Japan 1-0 in a high-pressing, style-driven game.
One of the boldest calls is Norway over the Netherlands on penalties, after a 1-1 draw. Norway’s recent scoring record supports that pick, with the team having scored 52 goals and conceded 12 in 14 competitive matches since the start of 2024.
The United States are also projected to survive a difficult path, beating Belgium 2-1 in Seattle before falling to Spain in the quarterfinals. Spain are favored to control that match, while England are picked to beat Mexico and Colombia are expected to handle Iran.
Quarterfinal and semifinal pressure points
France then move past Canada, and Spain advance past the United States. England’s run ends in a 1-0 loss to Norway, creating one of the tournament’s biggest surprises, while Argentina are predicted to edge Colombia.
The semifinal round then sets up two high-profile clashes. Spain are forecast to beat France on penalties after a 3-3 draw, while Argentina are picked to stop Norway 2-1.
That path leaves Spain and Argentina in the final, which fits the article’s view that both teams enter the tournament with the clearest blend of form, talent and draw advantage. Spain are the defending European champions, and Argentina have stayed near the top of the world game through strong Copa America and qualifying runs.
A final built for stars and fine margins
The projected title match carries the kind of narrative that World Cups usually produce only once every few editions. Lionel Messi and Lamine Yamal would dominate the attention, especially with the symbolic link between the two and the idea that Yamal could begin his own legacy on the biggest stage.
Spain are predicted to win the final 2-1, which would also match the article’s broader theme: the tournament may be larger than ever, but the winner still likely comes from the group of elite teams able to survive both the randomness of the bracket and the pressure of one-score knockout games.
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