Hamzah Ofli enters UFC Baku as the underdog, but the matchup with Muhammadjon Reyes has enough sharp edges to make that line feel fragile. Sherdog’s preview frames the bout as a test of whether Ofli’s renewed momentum can carry him past a bigger, steady featherweight who has already shown he can finish inside the Octagon.
Ofli’s UFC run has not followed a simple path. After coming out of Season 32 of The Ultimate Fighter, he opened his stint with losses to Mairon Santos and Muhammadjon Naimov, fights that exposed how his aggressive style can run into stronger firepower and more efficient wrestling.
He has answered with back-to-back wins over Ricardo Ramos and Zha Yi, even if the Yi result was a poor decision. That stretch gives him a real chance to move above .500 in one of the UFC’s deepest divisions, and it also suggests he has adjusted after those early setbacks.
Why Reyes Is Dangerous
Reyes arrived at the UFC level as a late bloomer as well, earning his contract on Dana White’s Contender Series before making a successful debut in February. Against Douglas Silva de Andrade, he absorbed some pressure on the feet and then overwhelmed the veteran with ground-and-pound for a first-round TKO.
That result highlighted what Reyes does well. He is a big featherweight who works at a steady pace, uses leg kicks and body work to wear opponents down, and can build as a fight goes on.
The Style Clash That Could Decide It
The key question is whether Reyes can use his size and pace in a way that creates the kind of bully performance that has troubled Ofli in the past. Sherdog notes that Reyes does not usually lean on that approach, and that could leave Ofli room to push the kind of higher work rate that helped him turn the Naimov fight around.
There is also the grappling layer. Reyes is not known as a polished offensive or defensive wrestler, though he is a solid submission grappler, and he showed more focus on the ground than expected in his debut win.
Ofli, meanwhile, is still the more proven attacker when he can dictate tempo. He can threaten on the feet with power and also force wrestling exchanges, which makes this one feel less like a simple size advantage and more like a battle over who can impose the cleaner rhythm.
The betting line lists Reyes at minus 160 and Ofli at plus 135, but the preview leans toward the Uzbek fighter’s recent corrections. The pick is Ofli by decision, with the logic resting on his ability to sustain pressure without getting trapped in the same kind of one-sided physical fight that caused problems earlier in his UFC run.
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