The San Diego State Aztecs are set to face the Colorado State Rams in the Mountain West Tournament quarterfinals at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas. The game is scheduled for 6 p.m. Thursday and will be broadcast on CBS Sports Network with radio coverage on 760-AM.
San Diego State enters the match with a 20-10 overall record and a strong Mountain West mark of 14-6. Colorado State holds a 21-11 overall record and is 11-9 in conference play. Historically, the Aztecs lead the series 54-46, having won seven of the last ten encounters. Their most recent regular-season game ended in a commanding 73-50 victory for San Diego State at Viejas Arena, while Colorado State claimed an 83-74 home win on February 21.
Aztecs’ Tournament Outlook
San Diego State’s postseason hopes largely depend on clinching the conference tournament title to secure a sixth consecutive NCAA Tournament berth. According to KenPom projections, the Aztecs have a 38.4% chance of reaching the championship game with only a 20% probability of winning the tournament. Other contenders include Utah State at 31%, followed by New Mexico (15.7%), Grand Canyon (11.1%), and Boise State (9.5%). Head coach Brian Dutcher’s team has historically performed well in quarterfinals, posting a 17-1 record in their last 18 appearances. However, this season poses challenges with key players Reese Dixon-Waters and Miles Byrd nursing injuries but still participating in practice sessions. Freshman guard Elzie Harrington remains doubtful due to health issues. Offensively, San Diego State is currently ranked 88th nationally by KenPom, aligning with their historical trend of tournament success being linked to strong offensive rankings.
Colorado State’s Strong Performance
Colorado State arrives as the hottest team in the conference, winning nine of their last ten games. Their momentum includes an impressive 82-74 victory at New Mexico’s renowned "The Pit," where they led by 19 points. The Rams also secured wins over UNLV and San Diego State during an eight-game winning streak. In their recent quarterfinal game against tenth-seeded Fresno State, Colorado State overcame a deficit to win 67-63. Washington transfer Jace Butler was instrumental, scoring 20 points with six three-pointers, while forward Carey Booth contributed 18 points. The Rams excel offensively, ranking about 50th nationally, but struggle defensively with a ranking near 200. They face issues with turnovers, ranking 289th nationally, though they limited turnovers to just nine in their latest contest. Colorado State also ranks in the top five nationally in three-point shooting percentage at 39.4%. KenPom currently rates the Rams 84th, a slight edge below San Diego State.
Key Factors and Historical Context
- San Diego State’s success in quarterfinal games and their offensive efficiency could play a pivotal role in this matchup.
- Colorado State’s offensive hot streak and shooting accuracy present a significant threat, especially given their recent victories against strong opponents.
- Injuries and player availability for the Aztecs may affect team depth and rotation.
- Turnover control remains crucial; Colorado State must maintain low turnovers to outpace the strong defensive pressure of the Aztecs.
The victor of this quarterfinal contest will advance to the Mountain West semifinals, scheduled for Friday at 9 p.m. on CBSSN. The game promises a competitive clash between two well-matched teams, each with distinct strengths and motivations heading into the critical stages of the Mountain West Tournament.