Democrats in California face an unprecedented challenge in the upcoming 2026 governor’s race, as recent polling indicates two Republican candidates hold narrow leads over a crowded field of Democratic contenders. The June primary looms, and California’s top-two primary system may result in both November general election candidates being Republicans—a scenario nearly unheard of in the state’s modern political landscape.
Polling data from UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, reveals conservative commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco lead with 17% and 16% support respectively. Meanwhile, the top Democrats, including Rep. Eric Swalwell and former Rep. Katie Porter, each garner around 13%, struggling to consolidate the left-leaning electorate’s enthusiasm.
Democratic Fragmentation and Voter Disengagement
The poll highlights a fractured Democratic field with eight leading candidates failing to excite voters. Mark DiCamillo, director of the study, described the situation as historic due to the absence of positive image ratings among candidates. “Voters are disengaged and not enthusiastic about any of the candidates,” DiCamillo explained. “They’re kind of sleepwalking to this election.”
Several Democrats are known for their progressive stances, including Swalwell and Porter, who gained national prominence through high-profile congressional hearings. Though this makes them popular among the Democratic base, it has not translated into overwhelming statewide support. Porter’s favorable rating stands at 34%, the highest in the field, recovering modestly after negative media exposure.
Billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer has increased his share to 10% of likely voters, a notable rise attributed to his $50 million advertising campaign launched earlier this year. Other Democratic hopefuls hold significantly lower support levels: former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra (5%), former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San José Mayor Matt Mahan (4%), and former Controller Betty Yee and State Superintendent Tony Thurmond (1% each).
Republican Appeal and Candidate Credibility
Bianco’s position as Riverside County Sheriff appears to bolster his credibility among voters. DiCamillo noted the influence of ballot titles in a low-information race: "His job title is kind of impressive, and voters think that’s credible." Republican candidates benefit from a polarized electorate and consistent messaging on government waste and corruption, a theme amplified nationally by former President Donald Trump.
Republican voters prioritize cutting waste and political corruption at nearly five times the rate of Democrats, reflecting ongoing ideological divisions. Trump’s recent task force efforts on fraud, which singled out California for scrutiny, resonate strongly with GOP voters in the state.
Primary System and Potential Outcomes
California’s top-two primary system ensures only the two highest vote-getters proceed to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. Democrats fear that split votes in the primaries could prevent any Democratic candidate from advancing. This concern prompted the California Democratic Party chair to encourage lower-polling candidates to reassess their campaigns or withdraw, a move met with resistance amid concerns about diversity and representation.
The state’s political registration heavily favors Democrats nearly 2-to-1 over Republicans, yet the recent poll’s findings suggest name recognition and candidate enthusiasm may override party numbers. Many voters remain unfamiliar with the candidates, particularly minor candidates, indicating a low-information electorate.
Key Voter Issues in the Race
Affordability has emerged as the primary concern for voters across party lines. Forty percent of respondents identified reducing California’s cost of living as a top priority for the next governor. Issues related to affordable housing, energy costs, and utility rates are frequently discussed by candidates across the ideological spectrum.
Other factors include regulatory reforms aimed at boosting housing development and discouraging private firms from bulk buying homes to stabilize prices. These themes reflect widespread voter frustration about economic challenges unique to California’s expensive living environment.
The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times poll surveyed 5,019 California registered voters in English and Spanish. The margin of error stands at ±2.5 percentage points overall, with larger errors for subgroups. As the June primary approaches, all eyes will be on whether Democrats can unify or face a historic loss in one of the nation’s most influential gubernatorial races.
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