Masters 2026 Favorites, Contenders, And Long Shots, Scheffler-McIlroy-Rahm Battle The Field

Rory McIlroy arrives at Augusta National with a different kind of pressure this week. After ending his long Masters search with a playoff win over Justin Rose, the world’s best players now have a clearer target, and McIlroy finally walks Magnolia Lane as a champion rather than a chaser.

Scottie Scheffler still stands as the leading threat to take over the tournament. He has won two green jackets already, owns the best major championship scoring mark in the game among active players in recent years, and remains the betting favorite even during a stretch when his driver and approach play have been less sharp than usual.

The top favorites

A handful of names sit above the rest because of form, history, or both. McIlroy, Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele, Cameron Young, Patrick Reed, Ludvig Åberg, Jon Rahm and Tommy Fleetwood form the strongest layer of contenders, with each bringing at least one clear path to the title.

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Bryson DeChambeau
4. Xander Schauffele
5. Cameron Young
6. Patrick Reed
7. Ludvig Åberg
8. Jon Rahm
9. Tommy Fleetwood

Scheffler’s case starts with history and consistency. ESPN Research notes that he is 101-under par in major championship play for his career, the best all-time total cited in the source, and 111 under since 2020, a run that places him well ahead of everyone else in that span.

McIlroy’s case is different, because it depends on health and putting. He dealt with a back injury that forced him out of the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then played the Players under caution, while his putting numbers slipped to 104th in strokes gained: putting, a sharp drop from the elite level he had at last year’s Masters.

DeChambeau enters Augusta with momentum from the LIV Golf League and unfinished business from a final-round pairing with McIlroy in the previous Masters. He finished fifth there and spent all four rounds near the top of the board, which is a strong sign for a course that rewards patience as much as power.

Rahm also fits the definition of a major threat because his Masters record remains strong despite the debate around his LIV schedule. He has five top-10 finishes in eight starts at Augusta and 13 rounds in the 60s there, the most of any player in ESPN Research’s data from the article.

The contenders behind the favorites

The next group can win if the premium players stumble, and several of them carry more than one useful trend. Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth, Sepp Straka, Brooks Koepka, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley, Robert MacIntyre, Akshay Bhatia, Tyrrell Hatton, Viktor Hovland and Harris English all fit that profile.

Fitzpatrick’s ballstriking has returned to a level that matches his U.S. Open-winning pedigree. Rose again showed he can still threaten at Augusta when he pushed McIlroy all the way to sudden death, and his three Masters runner-up finishes make him one of the most experienced threats in the field.

Spieth remains difficult to project, but Augusta has often brought out his best golf. He owns the lowest scoring average in Masters history among players with at least 25 rounds, and that matters on a course where creative shot-making can outweigh form for four days.

Koepka is one of the harder players to rank because his major record still travels better than his week-to-week results. He ranks third on tour in strokes gained: approach, yet his putting has been a weakness, and Augusta usually asks players to be strong in both categories.

Morikawa’s back injury reduces the certainty around his chances, but his long-term tee-to-green record keeps him on the short list when healthy. Since 2020, he has hit more fairways than anyone else and more greens than everyone except Scheffler, which is evidence of how high his ceiling can be at Augusta.

The sleepers with real upside

This group includes players who could rise quickly if the tee-to-green numbers and short game line up. Chris Gotterup, Shane Lowry, Jacob Bridgeman, Justin Thomas, Min Woo Lee, Si Woo Kim, Nicolai Højgaard, Corey Conners, Adam Scott, Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay, Jason Day, Jake Knapp, Daniel Berger, Ben Griffin, Gary Woodland, Alex Noren, J.J. Spaun, Cameron Smith, Sungjae Im and Zach Johnson all have a chance to matter.

Gotterup arrives as a first-time Masters player after two wins already this season, and his elite power off the tee gives him a tool that can matter at Augusta. Bridgeman also stands out because he leads the tour in strokes gained: putting, which can turn a first-time invite into a surprise weekend run.

Thomas is one of the most interesting names in this tier because of his track record and his recent surgery recovery. He tied for eighth at the Players, but his major history since 2023 has been uneven, with seven missed cuts in 12 starts, so Augusta will need to reward his wedge play and creativity if he is to contend.

Key names to track by category

Adam Scott remains a name to respect because Augusta has historically fit his eye, and his recent approach numbers suggest there is still enough left in his game for a deep run. Day and Burns also have enough past success to make the cut line useful only as a starting point, since both own the type of ball-striking and experience that can play well if the wind and greens cooperate.

Past champions and outsiders

The lower tiers tell a different story, one built on experience, survival and rare breakthroughs. Dylan? Not in this field, but the actual past champions in play include Ángel Cabrera, Fred Couples, José María Olazábal, Charl Schwartzel, Vijay Singh, Bubba Watson, Mike Weir and Danny Willett, all of whom return because Augusta gives former winners lifetime access.

At the same time, the event will be missing two of its biggest modern draws. Phil Mickelson withdrew because of a family health situation, and Tiger Woods is also out after announcing an extended leave and treatment, which means this is the first Masters since 1994 without either player in the field.

The amateur group also adds some of the tournament’s usual texture. Mason Howell, Ethan Fang, Jackson Herrington, Brandon Holtz, Fifa Laopakdee and Mateo Pulcini will try to make the cut and stay relevant through the weekend, which remains a difficult task even for the most decorated amateur champions.

Howell brings one of the stronger local storylines after winning the U.S. Amateur and nearly acing a practice-round hole at Augusta. Holtz, meanwhile, arrives as a 39-year-old former basketball player and mini-tour competitor whose path back to amateur status has made him an unlikely but notable inclusion.

McIlroy’s win last year changed the tone at Augusta National, but it did not end the competitive questions that define the tournament each spring. Scheffler remains the most complete player in the field, Rahm and DeChambeau have the tools to win, and several contenders sit close enough to turn a single hot week into a green jacket run by Sunday.