Rafael Devers Trade Domino Most Likely To Collapse, Kyle Harrison, Tibbs, Or Hicks?

Which Domino of the Rafael Devers Trade Could Age the Worst?

The early returns from the Rafael Devers trade have already shifted the conversation from the star third baseman’s departure to the value of the pieces Boston moved on from. The Red Sox have watched Kyle Harrison, James Tibbs III, and Jordan Hicks all change teams again, while only pitching prospect Jose Bello is still in the organization.

The trade has become less about one blockbuster swap and more about a chain of smaller moves that could define how the deal is judged over time. If the question is which domino may look worst later, the answer may depend on whether Boston cares most about lost upside, wasted return, or the long-term cost of moving on from Devers.

How the Trade Unfolded

Boston received four players in the Devers deal: Harrison, Hicks, Tibbs, and Bello. Since then, the first three have already moved again, while Bello remains the only player still tied to the Red Sox system.

Here is the path each piece has taken:

Kyle Harrison was dealt to Milwaukee in the Caleb Durbin trade.
James Tibbs III lasted only 30 games in Portland before being sent to the Dodgers.
Jordan Hicks was moved to the White Sox, with Boston still covering part of his salary.
Jose Bello stayed in the system as a 35 FV pitching prospect in A-ball.

That turnover has made the deal feel more like a set of subtractions than an addition of controllable talent.

Why Kyle Harrison Stands Out

Harrison may be the most interesting subplot because his value appears to be rebounding after leaving Boston. He has opened the season with two strong starts for Milwaukee, going 1-0 with a 2.61 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings.

Brewers reporter Curt Hogg wrote that “the Red Sox tried teaching him a new kick changeup last year, but Kyle Harrison couldn’t ever figure it out,” adding that one grip suggestion from a former Giants teammate helped unlock a new pitch after the trade. That kind of immediate mechanical improvement is exactly the sort of outcome that can make a front office regret a move.

If Harrison keeps progressing elsewhere, Boston will face a familiar front-office problem: the pitcher did not become a star in one uniform, but he may have become one after leaving.

Why James Tibbs III Could Hurt Most in the Long Run

Tibbs may offer the clearest example of lost upside. He posted a .900 OPS at Double-A last year, and after moving into Triple-A, he has produced seven home runs in 12 games, along with a 1.376 OPS and a 252 wRC+ in the Pacific Coast League.

That production comes in a hitter-friendly environment, so it should be read with caution. Even so, Tibbs is showing the kind of power surge that can change a prospect’s outlook quickly, and Boston had him only briefly before flipping him for Dustin May.

For a rebuilding or retooling club, this is the type of move that can age badly if the prospect matures into a regular while the major-league return stays replaceable. In this case, the Red Sox traded a young bat with real offensive upside for a short-term pitching gamble that has not delivered much.

Why Jordan Hicks Looks Like the Most Immediate Miss

Hicks may be the most damaging piece from a pure performance standpoint. He posted an 8.20 ERA in 21 games for Boston, and there is a case that he was among the club’s worst relievers in that workload this century.

The Red Sox later sent him to the White Sox and had to include prospect David Sandlin just to complete the salary dump. Boston still owes Hicks $4 million this year and next, which makes the transaction more painful because the club did not fully escape the contract.

His results have not improved in Chicago, either. Hicks has a 7.94 ERA and a negative-11.1 K-BB% in six appearances, which suggests the problem was not only Boston’s usage or environment. That makes the move look less like a temporary mismatch and more like a costly misread of both performance and contract value.

Which Domino May Hold Up Worst?

If the question focuses on the largest long-term regret, Tibbs may be the answer because of his age, offensive ceiling, and early production after the trade. If the focus is immediate value lost and salary damage, Hicks looks worse because Boston paid to move him and still carries part of the contract.

Harrison sits in the middle but could become the most uncomfortable outcome if Milwaukee unlocks a better version of him. That would leave Boston with the least desired combination: a pitcher they helped develop for another team, a prospect who might outgrow the level of return received, and a veteran reliever whose contract still lingers on the books.