Josh Naylor, Nolan Arenado, and Michael Busch are all dealing with early-season pressure, but the reasons behind their slow starts are not the same. Fantasy managers and front offices are facing a clear question with each hitter: is this a short slump, or a sign that the decline is real?
The answer starts with the numbers. Naylor’s line with the Seattle Mariners has collapsed to .102/.197/.102 with a .299 OPS and a -5 wRC+, Arenado’s production has fallen to .180/.192/.200 with a .392 OPS and a 7 wRC+, and Busch has dropped to .135/.233/.173 with a .406 OPS and a 25 wRC+.
Josh Naylor: patience is still justified
Naylor entered the season as a major piece of Seattle’s long-term plan after signing a five-year, $92.5 million deal. The Mariners expected him to bring stability at first base and help support a lineup built around Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez.
The results have been far worse than expected, but the underlying profile does not look as broken as the stat line. His strikeout rate is close to his career norm, his walk rate has improved, and his barrel data has not completely disappeared.
- Current batting line: .102/.197/.102
- OPS: .299
- wRC+: -5
- ISO: .000
- Expected slugging: .338
The biggest issue is power, or the lack of it. Naylor has no home runs and no doubles, but his expected numbers suggest more normal production should follow if the contact starts turning into hard-hit damage.
His expected batting average sits at .225, which is still far above his current mark. That gap points more to poor timing and bad fortune than a complete collapse, so the safest move is to wait for the numbers to correct.
Nolan Arenado: panic is becoming reasonable
Arenado’s case is much harder to defend. The Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman is hitting .180/.192/.200, and the lack of power is now part of a longer trend rather than a single cold stretch.
He has no home runs, only one extra-base hit, a 25.0% strikeout rate, and just a 1.9% walk rate. Those numbers would be alarming for a younger player, but they are especially concerning for a veteran whose value has always come from complete offensive production.
Arenado’s decline is visible in several areas:
- Home run output has dropped year by year
- Isolated power has continued to fade
- Hard-hit rate and exit velocity have both slipped
- Bat speed has fallen into a mediocre range
- Even his defense no longer carries the same edge
The problem is not only that Arenado is missing pitches, but that the contact quality is no longer there when he does swing. A change of scenery did not revive the bat, and the current production suggests that a rebound is no longer the most likely outcome.
Michael Busch: the swing looks out of sync
Busch is the most complicated of the three because the collapse has come after a genuine breakout. He hit .261/.343/.523 with an .866 OPS, 34 home runs, 90 RBIs, and 274 total bases last season, which made him one of the most valuable first basemen in the league.
This season looks nothing like that version of Busch. He is hitting .135/.233/.173 with a .406 OPS and a 25 wRC+, and he has only two doubles and no home runs. At one point, he went 0-for-his-last-30, which shows just how deep the slump has become.
Unlike Naylor, this is not just a story of unlucky outcomes. Busch’s contact quality has changed sharply, and the supporting metrics back that up. He is hitting fewer line drives, putting more balls on the ground, and losing the authority that drove his breakout.
Key comparison
| Player | Current Line | OPS | Main Issue | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor | .102/.197/.102 | .299 | No power, but underlying data is not fully broken | Wait |
| Nolan Arenado | .180/.192/.200 | .392 | Declining bat speed, power, and overall value | Run |
| Michael Busch | .135/.233/.173 | .406 | Swing shape and contact quality have regressed | Keep tabs, keep faith |
Busch’s expected metrics are also weak, which makes this more than a rough stretch. Still, his age, breakout history, and proven power suggest he is more likely to adjust than Arenado is to rediscover his old level.
For now, Naylor looks like the best bet to rebound, Arenado looks like the riskiest hold, and Busch sits between the two as a player whose skills have vanished for the moment but have not disappeared from his profile. The next few weeks will matter, especially if Naylor starts lifting the ball again, Arenado continues to lose power, or Busch begins to turn his contact back into damage.