Samsung’s place in the smartwatch market appears safe for now, but the broader category is heading into a tougher stretch. Smart Analytics Global, or SAG, expects the global true smartwatch segment to shrink by 2% in 2026 after rising 6% year on year in 2025.
That forecast matters because Samsung is still projected to remain third in the market, even as the industry contracts. The issue is not ranking alone, since a stable position can still come with lower shipment volume when the overall market gets smaller.
The top three remain unchanged
SAG’s latest outlook keeps Apple, Huawei, and Samsung in the same order at the top of the market. In 2025, Apple held a 39% share, followed by Huawei at 27% and Samsung at 12%.
The 2026 projection does not indicate a reshuffle in those positions. Apple is still expected to lead with 39%, Huawei is projected to rise to 31%, and Samsung is forecast to stay at 12%.
That picture suggests Samsung is not facing immediate pressure on its ranking. Even so, the unchanged share does not mean the business will be insulated from the slowdown affecting the category as a whole.
Volume pressure is likely to increase
SAG expects Samsung’s shipment volume to fall 8% year on year in 2026. That decline reflects the fact that a fixed market share can still translate into fewer units sold when total demand weakens.
Apple is also projected to see a decline, though the drop is smaller at 2% year on year. Huawei stands out as the only one of the three major brands expected to grow, with a 10% increase.
This creates a narrower path to expansion for all major vendors. Growth can no longer depend on a rising market, which means each brand has to fight harder for share and unit sales in a more selective environment.
Consumer behavior is changing the market mix
According to Abhilash Kumar, Lead Research Advisor at SAG, shifting consumer preferences are playing a central role in the slowdown. He said users are moving away from basic bands and entry-level watches.
The movement, he noted, is going in two directions. Some consumers are choosing analog watches for fashion, simplicity, and longer replacement cycles.
Others are upgrading to higher-value smart devices. This group includes true smartwatches and screenless fitness bands that offer more advanced health tracking and broader functionality.
That split is changing the wearable market in uneven ways. Lower-cost products are losing appeal on one side, while more advanced devices are not necessarily absorbing demand quickly enough to offset weakness at the bottom.
Samsung still has room, but the gap is wide
Samsung’s third-place position remains intact, yet the distance from the two leaders is still substantial. In 2025, the gap between Samsung and Huawei stood at 15 percentage points, while the difference from Apple reached 27 points.
Those numbers show that closing in on the top two will not be easy. Huawei’s forecasted gain also makes the competitive landscape more difficult, especially since Samsung and Apple are both expected to face declining volume.
The market is therefore becoming more competitive even without any major change in rank. With only one of the three biggest players projected to post growth, the battle is shifting from expansion to survival inside a smaller market.
New launches could become an important test
Samsung may still use upcoming product launches to strengthen its position. The company is expected to introduce a new Galaxy Watch alongside the Galaxy Z Fold 8, Galaxy Z Wide Fold, and Galaxy Z Flip 8, with the event possibly taking place on 22 July in London.
The most widely discussed model is the Galaxy Watch Ultra 2. It is said to potentially use the Snapdragon Wear Elite chipset, which would mark a notable step for Samsung’s smartwatch line if confirmed.
The device is also rumored to become Samsung’s first 5G smartwatch. Additional features that are expected to appear include satellite connectivity and UWB support.
Samsung is also likely to unveil a standard Galaxy Watch 9. The arrival of these models could serve as a practical measure of whether product upgrades are strong enough to offset a market that is becoming smaller and more selective.
SAG’s forecast does not point to a market collapse, but it does signal a more constrained phase for smartwatches. Samsung may keep its third-place standing, yet the challenge ahead is clearly more demanding as the category slows, shipments weaken, and the room for growth narrows.
