Crystal Palace head into a difficult Premier League meeting with Arsenal carrying mixed recent form but a strong record in their final home league match of the season. The Eagles are also preparing for a fixture that carries extra historical weight, with Arsenal arriving as one of the most reliable finishers on the final day in Premier League history.
This match brings together two sides with very different season-long trends. Palace have struggled for results in recent weeks, while Arsenal’s away record at Selhurst Park and their consistent success on the closing matchday make them a strong reference point in the build-up.
Palace looking to steady after a run without a win
Crystal Palace are winless in their last six Premier League matches, with three draws and three defeats in that stretch. Even so, their home form has been more resilient, as they are unbeaten in five at Selhurst Park since a 3-2 loss to Burnley in February.
That home record matters because Palace have never lost their final league match of a top-flight season at home. Their record in such games stands at eight wins and four draws, and their most recent example was a 5-0 victory over Aston Villa in 2023-24.
Palace also know they can trouble Arsenal on the right day. They drew 2-2 at the Emirates in April last season, which remains the exception in a broader run that has mostly gone Arsenal’s way.
Arsenal’s strong record in this fixture
Arsenal have won 10 of their 16 Premier League away games against Crystal Palace and lost only two. The Gunners have also won the last three away league meetings by an aggregate score of 8-1, underlining the scale of the challenge facing the hosts.
The overall recent head-to-head record also favours Arsenal. Crystal Palace have lost six of their last seven Premier League matches against the Gunners, with that April draw the only match in that sequence where they avoided defeat.
Arsenal’s final league games have often carried the same pattern of control. They have won their last Premier League match of the season in each of the last 14 campaigns, and their most recent defeat on the final day came in 2004-05 at Birmingham City.
Defensive numbers point to Arsenal’s control
Arsenal’s defensive record this season has been one of the most striking parts of their campaign. They have won 29 matches while keeping a clean sheet in all competitions, and another win to nil in this match would match their club record of 30 such wins set in 1970-71.
That trend is supported by an unusual league statistic. Arsenal have faced no shots on target in six different Premier League matches this season, which is the joint-most by any side on record in a single campaign since 2003-04.
For Palace, that means chance creation may be difficult unless they can raise the tempo early. Arsenal’s ability to manage games without allowing opponents clear looks at goal has been a defining feature of their season.
Players in form to watch
Ismaïla Sarr has been one of Palace’s most productive attackers in recent weeks. He has scored eight goals in his last eight starts in all competitions and has found the net in each of his last four appearances in the starting XI.
That run puts him close to a rare club milestone, too. Since Crystal Palace returned to the top flight in 2013, the only player to score in five consecutive starts for the club is Eberechi Eze, who did so in April and May last year.
Arsenal also have a player with a strong final-day record in Gabriel Jesus. He has been involved in seven goals in his team’s final Premier League match of the season, with five goals and two assists, the most by any current Premier League player on MD38.
What the numbers suggest
The fixture combines Palace’s home resistance with Arsenal’s dominance in the broader head-to-head record. Palace have shown they can be difficult to beat at Selhurst Park, but Arsenal’s away success in this matchup and their end-of-season consistency set a clear statistical backdrop.
With Palace searching for a response after a six-match winless league run and Arsenal carrying one of the league’s strongest defensive profiles, the key battle may come down to whether the hosts can break through early and disrupt the visitors’ control.
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