Bitcoin has had a rough year, but Bernstein analysts say the decline has been less severe than in earlier crypto winters. One reason, they argue, is that Strategy has stayed in the market as a net buyer.
The company, led by Michael Saylor, has become a major balancing force as other sources of demand have weakened. Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani said on Monday that it is still unclear whether bitcoin is fully out of the woods, but the current bear market has been milder than the previous drawdowns.
Why the pressure has not been worse
| Factor | What Bernstein Said |
|---|---|
| Strategy buying | Continues to add bitcoin and support the market |
| Spot ETFs | Lost $5.5 billion in withdrawals this year |
| Corporate treasury inflows | Helped keep net inflows positive |
| U.S. Bitcoin miners | Have been net sellers as they pivot to AI data centers |
Bernstein said inflows from leading treasury companies and ETFs total $10 billion in 2026, down from $60 billion last year. Even with spot ETF outflows, corporate buying has stepped in, with the analysts noting that inflows have been driven by treasury companies, particularly Strategy.
Strategy now holds more than 843,700 bitcoins, equal to roughly 4% of the total supply. The company shifted from software into the largest public digital asset treasury under Saylor’s leadership in 2020.
Bitcoin traded near $62,000 on Monday, about 54% below its all-time high of around $125,000 in October. Investor sentiment has also been hurt by a move toward AI-related investments and by concern that the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates later this year.
The token fell 20% in June, its worst monthly performance in four years, as expectations of a rate hike grew. Bernstein’s view is that Strategy’s buying has helped soften the impact of that pressure, even as the market remains sensitive to policy and capital flows.