France vs Spain and England vs Argentina give the World Cup semifinals two games with very little margin for error. Both matchups carry a 5/5 Streak Risk Factor, and both have already forced the competition’s predictors to split over who will survive.
France and Spain arrive with very different strengths, but both have found ways to keep winning. France have combined a feared attack with a defence that has grown stronger through the tournament, while Spain have controlled games with possession and territory even if their finishing has not always matched their dominance.
France vs Spain
France reached the last four by beating Morocco after a quarter-final in which they limited their opponent’s threat. Their front line of Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele and Michael Olise remains the obvious danger, but Didier Deschamps’ back line, led by Dayot Upamecano and William Saliba, has also become a major reason for their success.
Spain, meanwhile, conceded their first goal in six World Cup matches during a 2-1 quarter-final win over Belgium. They have been built on structure and control, but the concern is that their attack has not been as productive as their possession numbers suggest.
The Athletic Soccer Experts said this is “the tournament’s most formidable attack versus the best defensive team in the World Cup,” while also pointing to Spain’s issue of turning dominance into goals. Their own pick is France, while guest subscriber Calvin, Stanley the dog and Algo have all gone for Spain.
| Match | Key edge | Expert pick | Other picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| France vs Spain | France’s attack vs Spain’s control | France | Calvin, Stanley, Algo: Spain |
| England vs Argentina | Two “moments teams” led by star forwards | England | Wilfred, Stanley: Argentina |
England vs Argentina
The second semi-final brings together two sides that have leaned on individual moments more than sustained control. England’s 2-1 extra-time win over Norway was described by Thomas Tuchel as “lucky,” while Argentina have needed extra time in three straight knockout rounds to keep moving.
Argentina’s run has been shaped by Lionel Messi, who has now scored eight goals and provided two assists in the tournament. England, by contrast, have relied heavily on Jude Bellingham, who scored both goals in the win over Norway and now has six goals in the competition.
The rivalry adds another layer, with the football history including Diego Maradona’s Hand of God in 1986 and David Beckham’s sending off in 1998, alongside the broader political backdrop of the Falklands War in 1982. England and Argentina have not played each other since 2005, and Messi did not feature in that match because he was suspended.
The Athletic Soccer Experts backed England, and Algo did too. Calvin also picked England, while Wilfred and Stanley both chose Argentina, setting up another tight call in a semifinal where neither side has looked fully convincing, but both have found ways to win.
With four teams left and the standings still close, the last stretch of the tournament is turning into a race between bold attacks, stubborn defences and predictors who keep getting forced into difficult calls. That is exactly what makes these semifinals impossible to ignore.