Matthew Stafford currently leads the NFL MVP race with odds at -300, reflecting a 75 percent implied probability after the Los Angeles Rams secured a key playoff spot. The Rams are also favorites to win the Super Bowl at +350, reinforcing Stafford’s strong case as a 17th-season veteran and former Super Bowl winner who has yet to capture the regular-season MVP award.
Behind Stafford, Josh Allen and Drake Maye remain contenders despite shifts in their odds. Allen’s odds improved significantly from +1400 with an implied probability jump from under 6 percent to 16 percent, driven by his recent performance against the Patriots. Maye’s odds declined from +400 to +500 as his output, particularly in passing yards, came under some pressure during a close game against New England.
Allen starred in a comeback win over the Patriots, throwing for 193 yards and three touchdowns without interceptions. Analysts highlight his clutch play, with Allen leading all quarterbacks in important metrics such as EPA per dropback and 20-plus yard completions in fourth-quarter situations. This surge puts him firmly in contention, especially if the Buffalo Bills continue their winning streak.
The Bills’ schedule favors Allen’s MVP hopes, with upcoming matchups against the Cleveland Browns and the New York Jets before facing a tough Philadelphia Eagles team. If the Bills secure victories in these games and contend strongly for the AFC East title, Allen’s momentum could pose a serious challenge to Stafford’s dominance.
Meanwhile, Maye’s Patriots, though competitive, face a relatively softer schedule after their Baltimore game, with games against the Jets and Dolphins. Maye’s ability to sustain strong performances could keep him in the conversation, but the recent dip in odds suggests the window to catch Stafford is narrowing.
The MVP race is shaping into a tight contest between Stafford’s consistency and Allen’s late surge. With only a few games left, each performance will be critical in determining if Matthew Stafford’s lead is untouchable or if Josh Allen can capitalize on his rising momentum.
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