Fantasy Playbook: NFL Week 17 Shadow Reports, Lineup Locks, and Projected Scores
Week 17 of the NFL kicks off with Christmas contests and crucial matchups impacting fantasy football lineups. This playbook delivers projections, win probabilities, and matchup analytics to help season-long and daily fantasy sports (DFS) players optimize their final lineups.
Using detailed play-by-play data, shadow coverage and individual WR/CB matchups are incorporated into the analysis. This approach highlights which receivers and defenders might face tough assignments, aiding in sit/start decisions in 12-team PPR leagues with standard lineup formats.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders
Projected score favors the Cowboys 29-20, with a 63% win probability. Dak Prescott and Javonte Williams are lineup locks, supported by CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Terry McLaurin. Washington’s receivers receive an upgrade due to Dallas allowing the most fantasy points and yards to receivers, especially on the perimeter.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. returned as Washington’s lead back but remains a touchdown-dependent option due to minimal involvement in the passing game. The high over/under of 49.7 suggests a potentially high-scoring affair.
Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Lions hold a slight edge in a projected 24-17 game with a 55% win probability. Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams are locked in lineups. Receivers on Detroit face tough conditions against a Minnesota defense that allows the fewest fantasy points to the position, limiting upside.
Conversely, Minnesota receivers get an upgrade facing a Lions defense vulnerable to wideouts, especially on the perimeter. Justin Jefferson is on the WR3 radar, while Jordan Addison carries elevated bust risk despite the favorable matchup.
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Broncos favored 23-18 with a 67% win chance. RJ Harvey and Courtland Sutton are lineup locks. Kansas City starts Chris Oladokun at quarterback after Gardner Minshew’s IR placement. Oladokun’s limited experience and struggles place Chiefs skill players, including Travis Kelce, in a shaky fantasy position.
Denver’s defense is solid, making this a low-upside game for Chiefs receivers. The team’s leading pass-catcher Kelce has only one catch in two of his last three games, further clouding fantasy outlooks.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans
Chargers edge Texans 21-20 with a 56% win probability. Nico Collins is a must-start for Houston but lacks strong secondary receiving options due to a tough Chargers secondary. Chargers receivers face potential shadow coverage from Derek Stingley Jr., impacting their fantasy viability.
The Texans’ backfield features Jawhar Jordan as the primary ball carrier if Woody Marks is sidelined. Even then, Jordan projects as a low-ceiling flex option against one of the league’s stingiest run defenses.
Green Bay Packers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Packers projected to win 25-21 with a 65% chance. Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, and Zay Flowers make safe starts. Romeo Doubs posted an explosive game recently but remains inconsistent, with Green Bay’s trio of receivers best treated as upside flex plays due to spread targets.
Defense looks tough on pass catchers, suggesting caution in starting anyone outside the top options, despite the moderate over/under of 46.2.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals
Bengals favored 27-24 (61% win probability). Jacoby Brissett, Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins are lineup locks. Arizona utilizes Michael Carter as lead back, a flex play against a Bengals defense strong against receivers but weaker against running backs.
Defensively, DJ Turner’s shadow coverage on Marvin Harrison Jr. limits Harrison’s upside. The Bengals rank among the best at restricting wide receiver production, downgrading Arizona’s passing attack potential.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
Steelers lead a predicted 22-17 game with a 66% chance to win. Kenneth Gainwell and Harold Fannin Jr. are safe flex starts. The Browns lost Quinshon Judkins to injury, and backup options provide uncertain contributions.
The Steelers’ defense ranks well vs. running backs, reducing scoring opportunities for Cleveland’s backfield. Depth concerns keep Browns skill players on the bench.
New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans
Saints slightly favored 20-19 with 53% win probability. Chris Olave and Taysom Hill are fantasy considerations, with Hill now a strong rushing, passing, and receiving factor due to Alvin Kamara’s absence. This creates intriguing tight end streaming options.
Saints’ committee backfield limits any single player’s ceiling but Hill’s TE eligibility adds unique value for Week 17 lineups.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
Jaguars projected to win 27-21 with a strong 72% chance. Jonathan Taylor, Travis Etienne Jr., and Jakobi Meyers are lineup musts. Parker Washington’s recent breakout keeps him borderline, but inconsistency and Colts’ secondary call for caution.
Though Meyers and Brian Thomas share targets, the Colts’ pass defense ranks poorly, creating upside for Jaguars receivers despite a volatile passing attack.
Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A low-scoring 22-22 tie projected with a tight win probability margin. De’Von Achane, Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, and Jaylen Waddle are locked starters. Miami’s rookie QB Quinn Ewers showed promise but turnovers capped upside.
Tampa Bay’s defense is generous to tight ends, making Darren Waller a deep-league streamer. Achane and Waddle’s roles make them reliable starters in all formats.
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
Patriots dominant in projections at 29-16 and a 91% chance to win. Drake Maye, TreVeyon Henderson, and Stefon Diggs are lineup locks. Jets’ quarterback Brady Cook struggles coming off multiple interceptions, limiting all skill players’ fantasy production.
Breece Hall’s inefficiency and Patriots’ stout run defense recommend benching Jets’ options outside of a desperation flex.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers
Seahawks favored 24-20 with a 64% win likelihood. Jaxon Smith-Njigba remains a key receiver despite variable output. Kenneth Walker III’s strong recent performances elevate him to RB2 consideration against a Panthers run defense susceptible to fantasy points.
Seattle’s strong perimeter defense downgrades Carolina’s Tetairoa McMillan and receiving corps, warranting cautious usage.
New York Giants vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Giants hold a 23-20 edge, 62% win probability. Ashton Jeanty and Wan’Dale Robinson are lineup staples. Jaxson Dart’s recent struggles reduce confidence in his QB role but favorable Raiders pass defense numbers keep Dart in consideration for back-end starts.
Robinson’s fantasy value rises due to a positive matchup without steady competition in the Giants’ backfield.
Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Bills favored narrowly 26-24 with a 58% chance to win. Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, James Cook III, and A.J. Brown are lineup headliners. Eagles’ defense dominates against receivers and tight ends, leading to significant downgrades for Bills pass catchers.
Brown faces shadow coverage from Christian Benford, raising his bust risk despite recent hot streaks, calling for cautious deployment.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Chicago Bears
49ers favored 29-26 with a 58% win probability. Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, D’Andre Swift, Jauan Jennings, and George Kittle headline lineups. Caleb Williams continues as a borderline QB1 facing a 49ers defense that is susceptible to passing touchdowns but strong at pressuring quarterbacks.
49ers’ defense has the lowest sack total, suggesting the passing game could flourish, keeping skill players relevant.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons
Rams projected winners 30-22 with a 79% chance. Matthew Stafford, Bijan Robinson, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts Sr. are key-playing options. London’s upside benefits from matchup softness despite possible shadow coverage.
Falcons receivers face penalties in fantasy production due to a strong Rams secondary. The Rams’ passing game enjoys an upgrade against a vulnerable Atlanta defense allowing significant points to receivers recently.
These projections and matchup insights provide strategic guidance for lineup adjustments, waiver wire pickups, and DFS roster construction in Week 17. Integrating shadow coverage data enhances decision-making by clarifying player usage risks and potential upside.
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