ATP Brisbane Day 5 Predictions: Key Matchups and Player Analysis to Watch

The ATP Brisbane tournament is approaching a critical stage with Day 5 set to feature the final four Round of 16 matches. While no top-seeded players will be competing, the remaining players promise competitive and engaging contests, with opportunities for emerging talents to advance further.

This phase of the tournament presents key matchups, each with distinct narratives based on recent form, head-to-head records, and player trajectories. Predictions for these encounters highlight expected outcomes while acknowledging potential surprises.

Quentin Halys vs Brandon Nakashima
This encounter marks the first meeting between Halys and Nakashima. Nakashima, steadily climbing the rankings with ambitions to break into the Top 20, enters Day 5 with growing confidence after a strong first-round victory over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Halys provides solid resistance but Nakashima’s superior overall game makes him the favored contender to progress in straight sets.

Rinky Hijikata vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Mpetshi Perricard holds a narrow 1-0 lead in their head-to-head record. Despite a disappointing end to the previous season, Mpetshi Perricard has started the current year strongly, delivering an impressive serving performance to defeat Tommy Paul. His volatile style means matches can swing either way, often decided in tiebreaks. Hijikata’s recent form suggests a close contest, but Mpetshi Perricard’s serve and experience may give him the edge in a likely three-set battle.

Cameron Norrie vs Aleksandar Kovacevic
Kovacevic made significant progress last year, reaching two ATP finals and achieving a career-high ranking near the top 60. While capable of impressive tennis, his inconsistency remains a challenge. Norrie, although past his peak top-10 status, continues to deliver consistent results through relentless effort. Given their qualities, Norrie is expected to prevail in three sets under normal conditions.

Raphael Collignon vs Grigor Dimitrov
This will be the first match between Collignon and Dimitrov. Dimitrov’s 2025 was disrupted by injury, causing his ranking to fall sharply from a previous peak. However, his recent comeback win over Pablo Carreño Busta demonstrates that his skill remains intact when fit. Collignon aims to build momentum after a strong display against Denis Shapovalov, suggesting a competitive encounter. Still, Dimitrov’s experience and superior baseline game suggest he will advance after a hard-fought three-set match.

Key Takeaways and Outlook for Day 5

1. Emerging players like Nakashima and Collignon have chances to upset more established opponents.
2. Matches featuring volatile players such as Mpetshi Perricard could hinge on serve performance and mental toughness.
3. Experience and consistency will be critical factors, as seen in the predicted victories of Norrie and Dimitrov.
4. The absence of top-seeded stars shifts the spotlight to rising talents and seasoned journeymen fighting to advance.

Day 5 of the ATP Brisbane tournament promises intriguing tennis with several potential breakthroughs influencing the draw. These matchups will set the tone for the quarterfinals and provide a window into form and fitness as players prepare for the Australian Open.