Disney and 20th Century’s new survival thriller, "Send Help," is poised to lead the box office in its opening weekend. Industry projections estimate that the R-rated film will earn between $14 million and $17 million across 3,475 theaters domestically.
The movie’s promising debut is fueled by strong word-of-mouth and the continued popularity of original horror content. Internationally, "Send Help" is expected to generate an additional $10 million to $12 million.
Strong Creative Team and Plot
Directed by Sam Raimi, known for the "Spider-Man" trilogy and the iconic "Evil Dead" franchise, "Send Help" marks a return to his horror roots. The film stars Rachel McAdams and Dylan O’Brien as a neglected employee and her toxic boss stranded together after a plane crash. Variety’s chief critic Peter Debruge highlighted the film’s unpredictability and fun factor, which could help the movie maintain momentum beyond opening weekend.
Competition at the Box Office
"Send Help" will face competition from three new releases, including the sci-fi thriller "Iron Lung," Jason Statham’s action-adventure "Shelter," and the documentary "Melania." Projections place "Iron Lung" in second with around $10 million in revenue. "Shelter" could open to a moderate $5 million to $7 million. Meanwhile, "Melania" aims for a $3 million to $5 million start.
The Documentary "Melania": High Costs and High Stakes
"Melania," a documentary about the former First Lady Melania Trump, carries a significant price tag. Amazon MGM acquired the film for $40 million and reportedly spent an additional $35 million on marketing. The movie will premiere in 1,500 domestic theaters. While a seven-figure gross is respectable for a documentary, it is underwhelming given the high acquisition and promotional costs.
The documentary has sparked considerable interest because it covers the 20 days leading up to Donald Trump’s second inauguration. Its release coincides with politically charged moments in the country, including recent immigration enforcement actions.
Notable Details Behind "Melania"
Directed by Brett Ratner, "Melania" marks his first project since sexual assault allegations in 2017. The world premiere took place at the Trump-Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C., with attendance expected from political figures and Trump supporters, including Dr. Mehmet Oz and Governor Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Former President Trump has also promoted the film on social media.
Unique Film Releases Round Out This Weekend
"Iron Lung" is a unique entry since it was created by popular YouTuber Markiplier, who independently wrote, directed, financed, and starred in the film. Based on a video game, the sci-fi thriller follows a convict exploring a hostile moon environment. "Iron Lung’s" built-in digital fanbase positions it well for a solid opening.
"Shelter," directed by Ric Roman Waugh, tells the story of a man causing chaos after rescuing a child during a storm. The $50 million action thriller, starring Gerard Butler, is released by Black Bear, a distributor gaining attention for introducing fresh titles to theaters.
Industry Context: A Changing Box Office Landscape
Exhibitors remain optimistic about the influx of new distributors such as Black Bear, Row K, and Warner Bros. Independent amid a backdrop of shrinking studio output. The pandemic and Hollywood labor strikes have constrained film releases, weighing on domestic box office recovery. Last year’s revenue fell short of the anticipated $9 billion, highlighting the challenge of regaining pre-pandemic levels.
As these new films arrive, industry observers ask whether 2026 will be the year of the long-awaited theatrical rebound. The performance of titles like "Send Help" and others in the coming weeks will offer key indicators about audience appetite for new releases and the health of movie theaters nationally and abroad.
Read more at: variety.com
