El Nino is increasingly likely to develop later this year, potentially influencing global weather patterns, hurricane activity, and temperature trends. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued an El Nino Watch, indicating favorable conditions for its formation within the next six months.
NOAA’s current forecast estimates a 62% chance that El Nino will emerge between June and August, with probabilities growing higher in the fall. This phenomenon is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It follows the fading La Nina phase, with ENSO-neutral conditions expected this summer.
The exact strength of the upcoming El Nino remains uncertain. NOAA notes about a one in three chance that it will become strong by year-end, while most models suggest a weak-to-moderate event. Forecasters caution that seasonal predictions in spring have reduced accuracy due to the boreal spring predictability barrier, a known limitation affecting ENSO outlook skill.
Karen L’Heureux, a physical scientist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, emphasized the current uncertainty stemming from transitional ocean patterns typical of this time of year. Similarly, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) highlighted the challenge of producing reliable outlooks during spring, urging caution in interpreting early forecasts.
Typical El Nino Impacts on U.S. Weather
El Nino generally influences weather most distinctly from late autumn through early spring. Andrew Kruczkiewicz of Columbia Climate School explained that effects vary widely depending on timing, intensity, and geographic extent. During El Nino periods, the northern U.S. and parts of Alaska tend to experience warmer temperatures, while the southern U.S. often sees cooler or near-average conditions.
Precipitation patterns also shift, with wetter than normal conditions expected along the southern tier of the United States, including California, the Southwest, Gulf Coast, and Southeast. Conversely, areas like the northern Rockies, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes commonly receive below-average rainfall during El Nino events. Snowfall distributions also change, favoring above-average accumulation in the southern Rockies and Northeast coastal regions.
Michelle L’Heureux noted that consistent temperature and precipitation impacts are more likely to occur during the coming winter season, with the full effects often manifesting one to two months after El Nino forms. The variability of each event means seasonal outcomes are never guaranteed.
Influence on Hurricane Seasons
El Nino’s timing and strength will play a crucial role in shaping the 2026 Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons. Typically, El Nino suppresses Atlantic hurricanes by increasing vertical wind shear, which disrupts storm formation. Andy Hazelton from the University of Miami stated that increased upper-level winds and sinking air over the Atlantic are expected to moderate hurricane activity.
In contrast, the Eastern Pacific often experiences increased hurricane activity under El Nino conditions, as sea surface temperatures and atmospheric winds become more favorable. Hazelton added that Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain an important factor; currently, they are average to slightly below normal, which may influence overall activity levels.
NOAA plans to release the official hurricane outlook in May, reminding that El Nino is only one of several variables affecting tropical cyclone seasons. Jon Gottschalck, chief of NOAA’s Operational Prediction Branch, stressed the importance of waiting for more definitive forecasts.
Potential Impacts on Global Temperatures
El Nino is frequently linked to spikes in global average temperatures. The record-warm year of 2024 coincided with the previous El Nino event, which emerged mid-2023 and lasted through spring 2024. Warm ocean surfaces and altered atmospheric conditions associated with El Nino contribute to elevated global temperatures.
However, experts emphasize that El Nino-driven temperature increases occur against the backdrop of ongoing human-caused climate warming. This long-term trend, driven by greenhouse gas emissions, sets the stage for record-breaking heat in years with El Nino presence.
Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO, pointed out that the strong 2023–24 El Nino helped push global temperatures to unprecedented levels. NOAA ranks 2025 as the third-warmest year on record, influenced by lingering La Nina effects that temporarily suppressed temperatures.
NOAA’s forecasts indicate over 90% probability that 2026 will be among the five warmest years recorded globally. The likelihood of 2026 becoming the warmest year remains around 1%, but this chance could rise substantially in 2027 depending on how El Nino develops and peaks.
Summary Table: Key El Nino Outlook Details
| Aspect | Information |
|---|---|
| Probability of Formation (June-August) | 62%, increasing into fall |
| Expected Strength | Most likely weak to moderate, ~33% chance of strong event |
| Typical U.S. Temperature Effects | Warmer northern U.S. and Alaska, cooler southern U.S. |
| Typical U.S. Precipitation Effects | Wetter southern tier, drier northern Rockies and Midwest |
| Hurricane Season Influence | Atlantic suppressed, Eastern Pacific enhanced |
| Global Temperature Impact | Potential record warmth following El Nino peak |
| Forecast Reliability | Low predictability during spring; greater certainty in late year |
Continued monitoring of sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions will clarify the trajectory of El Nino this year. Its evolving nature requires careful interpretation by scientists and decision-makers, as impacts on weather extremes and climate trends remain complex and variable.
Read more at: abcnews.com
