The final Premier League weekend still has plenty to settle, even if the title race and much of the relegation picture are already decided. Arsenal have secured their first championship in 22 years, while the battle for Champions League places is close to finishing, but several clubs still have very different outcomes available on the last day.
Sunday’s matches also carry a rare twist, because an extra game could be needed to separate Liverpool and Bournemouth in the race for the final Champions League spot. The table remains tight in the middle and at the lower end, with only the bottom half of the standings still offering meaningful movement for most clubs.
What is still on the line
The biggest remaining fights are for European places and for survival in 17th. Tottenham Hotspur host Everton and West Ham United host Leeds United in the only matches that directly affect the battle to stay up, with Spurs needing only a point in practical terms because of their stronger goal difference.
West Ham could still finish on 39 points if they win, which would be the highest total for an 18th-placed team since Blackpool in 2010-11. Since the start of the century, only one club has gone down with more points, and that was West Ham themselves in 2002-03 with 42.
That reflects how competitive this season has been. The points spread after 37 games is the tightest in the competition since 2019-20, and the league’s middle section is especially compressed, with just three points separating Chelsea in eighth and Fulham in 13th.
Which teams can still move the most
Most clubs can still shift at least one position on the final day, excluding Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United. Several teams are packed into narrow bands, and six clubs can still finish in one of six different places depending on results and goal difference.
Chelsea, Brentford and Sunderland can finish anywhere from seventh to 12th. Newcastle United, Everton and Fulham can end up as high as ninth or as low as 14th, which shows how much can still change even with only one round left.
The top of the table is much clearer, but the European race is still active for six sides. Liverpool, Bournemouth, Brighton and Hove Albion, Chelsea, Brentford and Sunderland are still in contention for some kind of continental football.
How Liverpool and Bournemouth could force an extra game
There is a very small chance that Liverpool and Bournemouth could need a play-off to decide the final Champions League place. Liverpool go into the last match in fifth, on 59 points, three ahead of Bournemouth in sixth on 56, so Arne Slot’s side will seal fifth place with a win or a draw against Brentford.
The unusual scenario begins only if Liverpool lose at home and Bournemouth win away at Nottingham Forest. That would leave both clubs level on 59 points, so the league’s tiebreakers would come into play.
Goal difference would be checked first, and Liverpool are six ahead in that category. If Bournemouth are to catch them, they would need a sizable win while Liverpool lose by a matching margin, because goals scored is the next tiebreaker and Liverpool are also five ahead there.
If Bournemouth somehow matched Liverpool on points, goal difference and goals scored, head-to-head records would be used next. Both teams have one win apiece this season — Liverpool won 4-2 at Anfield and Bournemouth won 3-2 at the Vitality Stadium — and they are level on away goals in those meetings too, with two each.
That leaves only one solution: a neutral-venue play-off to decide the final Champions League place. It is an extreme possibility, but both clubs will know it exists before kick-off.
How the Champions League places could stretch to sixth
A separate European wrinkle could expand the Champions League places from five to six. Aston Villa’s Europa League success means that if Villa finish fifth in the league, the additional European Performance Slot would drop the extra Champions League place down to sixth.
That route looks more plausible than the Liverpool-Bournemouth play-off. It would require Villa to lose at Manchester City and Liverpool to beat Brentford, which would leave Bournemouth needing only a point to secure sixth and a place in Europe’s top competition.
Brighton could still move above Bournemouth if Bournemouth lose at Forest and Brighton beat Manchester United at home. That would come down to goal difference, and it keeps the race for the final European places alive until the last whistle.
The lower half could still reshape the table
Even outside the European race, the final day still carries consequences across the lower half of the table. Several clubs can climb or drop multiple places, and the standings remain close enough that goal difference may decide more than one outcome.
That matters because the season has not produced the usual gap between the strongest and weakest sides. The distribution of points after 37 games suggests a compact league, with far less separation between teams than in many recent seasons.
The result is a final day with more moving parts than usual, even after the main prizes have been settled. With survival, European qualification and a possible extra match all still in play, the last round of Premier League fixtures still has room for surprises.
Read more at: www.nytimes.com