Casper Ruud and Tommy Paul will meet in Friday’s French Open Round 3 with a place in the quarterfinals at stake. The matchup brings together two players who have handled clay well, but Ruud enters as the stronger betting favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Ruud opened the tournament with some early tension, needing five sets after taking the first two against his first-round opponent. He responded well in Round 2 by beating Hamad Medjedovic in straight sets, which gave him a much cleaner path into this match.
Paul has also moved through the draw with control after an early stumble. He dropped his first set of the tournament, then won six straight sets, including a 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 victory over Lorenzo Sonego in the second round.
Odds and match setup
DraftKings lists Ruud at -272 on the moneyline, while Paul is priced at +207. The total sits at 37.5 games, with the Over at -115 and the Under at -125.
The match is scheduled for Friday, May 29 at 9:20 a.m. EST, and it will be shown on HBO Max. Those numbers point to a competitive clay-court battle, even if Ruud is expected to be the likelier winner.
What the history says
Ruud has the better head-to-head record, winning four of six matches against Paul. The two have not met since 2024, but Ruud also owns the only clay-court win in the matchup.
That surface detail matters here because both players are comfortable on clay. Ruud has built a strong French Open résumé, reaching the final in 2022 and 2023 before falling in the semifinal to Alexander Zverev in 2024 and then exiting in the second round last year.
Paul has also shown progress in Paris. He reached the French Open quarterfinals last year for the first time, though that run ended in a one-sided loss to Carlos Alcaraz after winning only five games across three sets.
Why the total stands out
The betting angle leans toward a longer match rather than a clean finish. Both players have spent roughly five to six hours on court through their first two matches, and each logged a little over two hours in the second round.
That shared workload limits the case for a major fatigue edge on either side. It also supports the view that Ruud may be the rightful favorite without being dominant enough to make the short price especially appealing.
The most reasonable play, based on the available numbers and recent form, is Over 37.5 games at -115. A longer match also leaves room for a five-set outcome at +235, though that is more of a smaller-stake option than the main recommendation.
Pick: OVER 37.5 (-115)
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