Brazil’s foreign policy is facing a sharper defense challenge as regional military pressure and wider global conflict force a rethink in Brasília. Audo Faleiro, an aide to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, said the issue is becoming more urgent, especially after the U.S. military action in Venezuela.
Speaking at the 2nd National Conference on Brazil’s Foreign Policy and International Insertion at the Federal University of ABC in São Bernardo do Campo, Faleiro said the sense of vulnerability in the region has changed how defense is being discussed. He stressed, however, that he does not see an immediate threat to Brazil’s oil reserves or its nuclear program.
Why defense is moving up the agenda
Faleiro said Brazil still lives with a permanent dilemma over defense spending. One side argues the country is peaceful and does not need to prepare for attack, while another says the military gap is so large that extra investment would not make much difference.
He pointed to asymmetric conflicts, including the U.S. and Iran, as evidence that the stronger side does not always win. In his view, effective deterrence matters, and Brazil remains vulnerable enough to demand serious attention.
“I do not see today an objective threat to Brazil, as happened in Venezuela, that military action that was effectively to control Venezuela’s oil reserves,” he said.
Five other foreign policy pressure points
Alongside defense, Faleiro listed five other areas he believes will demand close attention through at least 2030. Those areas are critical minerals and rare earths, digital sovereignty, transnational organized crime, regional integration, and ties with African countries.
| Area | What Faleiro said |
|---|---|
| Critical minerals and rare earths | Regulation is outdated, and Brazil needs a strategy to make better use of its position as a major holder of these resources. |
| Digital sovereignty | Brazil arrived late to the debate and now needs major investment to catch up. |
| Transnational organized crime | The issue must not be manipulated for political ends, and Brazil should move from defense to proposing a regional agenda. |
| Regional integration | Fragmentation in Latin America has slowed efforts to revive Unasul and Celac. |
| Africa relations | Brazil must rethink cooperation tools after years of neglect left room for other actors to advance. |
On critical minerals and rare earths, Faleiro said the legal framework is outdated but noted that the current administration is working to create a National Council for Critical Minerals linked to the presidency. He said Brazil needs more investment in strategies for what he described as a special position as the world’s second-largest holder of critical minerals.
Crime, digital power and regional paralysis
On organized crime, Faleiro said recent events show how the topic can be used politically. He added that Brazil won the Interpol leadership because the government understood the importance of the issue, and the organization is now led by a Brazilian Federal Police officer.
He also argued that Brazil should present a stronger regional agenda against criminal networks. According to him, even countries closer to the new U.S. administration would find it difficult to ignore such a proposal in Latin America.
Faleiro said digital sovereignty is another area where Brazil has fallen behind. “Brazil was left out of the world when this topic evolved more quickly,” he said, adding that the country must now make major investments to recover lost ground.
He described regional integration as blocked by political fragmentation, citing the election of Javier Milei in Argentina and the 2024 Venezuelan election outcome as factors that created a cross-veto situation. That, he said, has stalled efforts to strengthen Unasul and has left Celac unable to coordinate effectively.
Relations with Africa, he said, remain important because Brazil still benefits from historical sympathy built during Lula’s first two terms. But he warned that other countries now have stronger tools and more active engagement on the continent, leaving Brazil to rethink cooperation.
Brics expansion under fire
Faleiro also criticized the Brics expansion in 2023, saying the addition of new members was a mistake that has frozen the group. He noted that internal tensions, including conflict between Iran and the United Arab Emirates, have made consensus impossible.
“You have not seen a Brics statement on the conflict in the Middle East until now, because it is not possible to have consensus inside the group,” he said. He added that the expansion was an error and said he does not see an easy way to reverse it.
