The 2026 FIFA World Cup bracket is set, and Alexi Lalas has drawn a path that puts France in the strongest position while making the United States work for every step forward. His picks also leave room for a headline-making final scenario, including a possible meeting between France and Colombia.
The bracket is more than a set of winners and losers at this point. It now frames the most important questions of the knockout rounds, from how far the U.S. can go to whether Colombia can keep surprising the field after a strong group stage.
France and Colombia Stand Out in the Top Half
Lalas identified France and Colombia as the teams that reached the final in the upper-left quadrant of the bracket. He said Colombia had been backed well before the tournament and that their result against Portugal made that belief feel stronger.
Even so, he did not frame that matchup as an easy call. France was described as the most impressive team of the group stage, with Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé both taking turns as the standout star while the team continued to spread scoring across the roster.
| Bracket Stage | Lalas’ Pick | Key Note |
|---|---|---|
| Final | France over Colombia | France seen as the most complete team from the group stage |
The U.S. Path Gets Hard Fast
For the United States, the first hurdle looks manageable on paper. Lalas said the team should win the round of 32 after finishing the group stage in position to face an opponent it should beat.
The next round changes the tone sharply. In his view, the round of 16 likely brings a team such as Senegal or Belgium, and that is where the challenge starts to look much more serious for the U.S.
The quarterfinal level raises the stakes again. Lalas said a matchup with Spain would be a defining moment in American soccer history if the U.S. could pull off the upset, while he sounded even more confident about a possible path through Portugal.
Round-by-Round Knockout Picks
Here is how Lalas filled out the bracket from the round of 32 through the final.
| Round | Matchup | Pick | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Round of 32 | Germany vs Paraguay | Germany | — |
| Round of 32 | France vs Sweden | France | — |
| Round of 32 | Canada vs South Africa | Canada | — |
| Round of 32 | Netherlands vs Morocco | Netherlands | — |
| Round of 32 | Portugal vs Croatia | Portugal | — |
| Round of 32 | Spain vs Austria | Spain | — |
| Round of 32 | USA vs Bosnia & Herzegovina | USA | — |
| Round of 32 | Senegal vs Belgium | Senegal | — |
| Round of 32 | Brazil vs Japan | Brazil | — |
| Round of 32 | Norway vs Ivory Coast | Norway | — |
| Round of 32 | Mexico vs Ecuador | Mexico | — |
| Round of 32 | England vs DR Congo | England | — |
| Round of 32 | Argentina vs Cape Verde | Argentina | — |
| Round of 32 | Egypt vs Australia | Egypt | — |
| Round of 32 | Switzerland vs Algeria | Switzerland | — |
| Round of 32 | Colombia vs Ghana | Colombia | — |
| Round of 16 | France vs Germany | France | — |
| Round of 16 | Netherlands vs Canada | Netherlands | — |
| Round of 16 | Spain vs Portugal | Spain | — |
| Round of 16 | USA vs Senegal | USA | — |
| Round of 16 | Brazil vs Norway | Brazil | — |
| Round of 16 | Mexico vs England | Mexico | — |
| Round of 16 | Argentina vs Egypt | Argentina | — |
| Round of 16 | Colombia vs Switzerland | Colombia | — |
| Quarterfinals | France vs Netherlands | France | — |
| Quarterfinals | Spain vs USA | Spain | — |
| Quarterfinals | Brazil vs Mexico | Brazil | — |
| Quarterfinals | Colombia vs Argentina | Colombia | — |
| Semifinals | France vs Spain | France | — |
| Semifinals | Colombia vs Brazil | Colombia | — |
| Final | France vs Colombia | France | Champion |
That leaves France as Lalas’ champion, with Colombia finishing as the team most capable of turning the bracket into a surprise ending. The rest of the field, including the U.S., faces a tougher road once the knockout rounds begin to thin the contenders.
