WTA Wimbledon’s round of 16 has opened a rare path deeper into the draw, with Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, and Iga Swiatek already out. That has left Monday’s matches with real quarterfinal stakes and fewer familiar names blocking the way.
LastWordOnSports has two best bets for the day, and both come from matches where form on grass matters as much as ranking. One features Ashlyn Krueger against Marta Kostyuk, while the other pits Marie Bouzkova against Elise Mertens.
Krueger vs Kostyuk
Ashlyn Krueger has turned into one of the tournament’s more surprising stories. She survived a first-round scare against Donna Vekic, coming back from a set and 4-1 down against the former Wimbledon semifinalist, then carried that momentum through two more strong matches.
Marta Kostyuk has also impressed, especially with a third-round win over Emma Navarro, one of the more reliable grass-court players in the field. Kostyuk is the higher-ranked player and sits firmly inside the WTA top 20, which is part of why she is viewed as the favorite.
| Player | Grass Form | Wimbledon Run So Far | Betting Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashlyn Krueger | 16 grass match victories this year | Beat Donna Vekic after trailing badly, then won two more matches | Can be considered with plus 1.5 sets for insurance |
| Marta Kostyuk | Strong enough to beat an in-form grass player in Emma Navarro | Reached the round of 16 with confidence growing | Preferred side for moneyline or game spread |
Krueger’s recent level makes her dangerous, but Kostyuk’s grass-court win over Navarro gives her the stronger case overall. The recommended angle is Kostyuk -2.5 games at 1.65 with bet-at-home, which is framed as the value play for the match.
Bouzkova vs Mertens
Marie Bouzkova and Elise Mertens arrive with momentum, and both had to work for their place in the last 16. Bouzkova beat Liudmila Samsonova in a tough three-setter, while Mertens upset No. 2 seed Elena Rybakina in straight sets.
Bouzkova has been steadier across the grass season and has nine grass wins this year, compared with six for Mertens. Even so, Mertens’ win over Rybakina adds a different kind of confidence to the matchup and makes the market harder to read.
| Player | Grass Wins This Year | Round of 16 Path | Match Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marie Bouzkova | 9 | Beat Liudmila Samsonova in three sets | Steadier recent form on grass |
| Elise Mertens | 6 | Defeated Elena Rybakina in straight sets | Confidence boosted by a major upset |
The market leans slightly toward Mertens, but the form profile points to a long battle. LastWordOnSports calls over 2.5 sets the value angle, with the expectation that the match goes to three sets or comes very close.
Monday’s WTA Wimbledon slate has already been shaped by the exit of the top three seeds, and that has made these two matchups even more important. Krueger’s grass-season surge and Bouzkova’s steadiness are both live factors, but the suggested bets still lean on the players with the clearer edge in form or the more likely route to a tight three-set fight.