Bayer 04’s slide in the table has raised familiar questions about form, momentum, and progress. Kasper Hjulmand rejects the idea that his team has stood still, but the numbers he points to do not clearly support that claim.
The debate matters because Leverkusen’s standards remain high after winning the double in 2024. Instead of pushing toward the Champions League places, the team sits in sixth, four points behind fourth place, while its Bundesliga return in the second half of the season has averaged only 1.54 points per game.
Hjulmand sees a more positive trend behind the results
Asked before the derby at 1. FC Köln, Hjulmand pushed back strongly against the suggestion that Bayer 04 has failed to develop under his watch. “I think that is completely, completely wrong,” the Danish coach said, arguing that the data behind the results shows improvement.
Hjulmand also stressed that a season cannot be judged only by the final scoreline. He said he does not want to sound defensive, but added that “behind every result, behind every season, there is much more,” and pointed to the chance balance as his main evidence.
Chance data does not back up the claim
The coach’s central argument is that his team has often created more than it allowed. In his view, a trainer’s first task is simple: produce more chances than the opponent, regardless of style or system.
The raw numbers, however, paint a mixed picture. In the Bundesliga matches under Hjulmand before the winter break, Bayer 04 recorded a positive chance balance in seven games. In the games played in 2026, that number is also seven, so there is no increase in the frequency of dominant attacking performances.
The other side of the equation looks even less convincing. Before the break, Leverkusen had only six matches without a chance advantage, but that figure has already climbed to eight in 2026. That suggests more games in which Bayer struggled to tilt the field in its favor.
The overall balance is slightly better, but not enough to prove a clear rise
Hjulmand can also point to a modest improvement in the overall chance difference. Across the 13 league matches under his leadership before the turn of the year, Bayer 04 had a plus of 23 goal chances.
That number stands at plus 29 now, which sounds better at first glance. Yet the margin does not show a decisive step forward, especially because one match has a strong distorting effect on the total.
The Bayern match inflates the picture
The 1-1 draw against Bayern Munich produced a chance advantage of five for Leverkusen. That game came in unusual circumstances, with Bayern down to 10 men for more than a half and even reduced to nine players in the closing stages.
That context makes the chance balance look more favorable to Hjulmand’s argument than it really was. Without that match, the data would point much more clearly toward stagnation rather than improvement.
Recent home matches offer only partial support
There have been signs of attacking sharpness in individual games. Bayer 04 produced 16 chances in the 6-3 win over Wolfsburg and 13 chances in the 1-2 loss to Augsburg, both home matches that marked internal season highs.
Even so, those isolated peaks do not change the broader pattern. The numbers across Hjulmand’s spell do not show a sustained upward trend in chance creation, and they do not fully support his view that Bayer 04 has developed in a meaningful way since he took over.
The contrast between results and underlying data explains why the discussion continues. Leverkusen has shown flashes of offensive strength, but the wider statistical picture still leaves open the question of whether that has translated into real progress.
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