Arsenal have taken back control of the Premier League title race, and the gap to Manchester City now looks significant with matchweek 36 approaching. Their 3-0 win over Fulham and City’s 3-3 draw at Everton left Mikel Arteta’s side five points clear with three games left for Arsenal, although City can trim that to two if they win their game in hand against Crystal Palace.
That shift matters because Arsenal no longer need to rely on goal difference, and their recent form has improved at the right moment. The Opta supercomputer also backs that view, giving Arsenal an 86 per cent chance of lifting the title as the season reaches its final stretch.
How Arsenal moved back into the driving seat
The title race looked far tighter after Arsenal’s 2-1 defeat away to City last month, but their response has been strong. A narrow 1-0 home win over Newcastle United eased some pressure, and the 3-0 defeat of Fulham was described by the data as their most fluent attacking display of the season.
Arsenal produced their highest expected goals figure of the Premier League campaign against Fulham and scored three first-half goals in a league match for the first time since November 2024. Bukayo Saka played a major role from wide areas, while Viktor Gyokeres and Declan Rice were able to come off early as Arsenal managed their workload before their Champions League semi-final second leg.
Why the momentum has shifted
Arsenal’s recent performances have changed the mood around the club. The tension that had built around the Emirates has eased, helped further by their 1-0 win over Atletico Madrid on Tuesday night, which sent them into a first Champions League final in 20 years.
Myles Lewis-Skelly also stood out in midfield against Fulham. The 19-year-old completed more passes than every Arsenal player except William Saliba, and he played a key role in linking defence to attack by dropping deep and helping move the ball into advanced areas.
City, by contrast, have looked less secure. They were leading at Everton after Jeremy Doku’s left-footed finish, but defensive lapses after the break cost them control of the match, and the late equaliser only masked a result that felt like two more points dropped.
Fixture difficulty now favours Arsenal
On paper, Arsenal have the easier finish. The average Opta Power Ranking of their final fixtures shows that no Premier League side has a softer run-in, with all three of their remaining league matches coming against teams currently in the bottom six.
That does not mean the task is simple. West Ham United, Arsenal’s next opponents, are fighting for survival and badly need points, even if Arsenal have dominated recent visits to the London Stadium with wins of 5-2 and 6-0.
Their final away trip to Crystal Palace also comes with a warning attached, because Palace are expected to rotate heavily with a Conference League final coming soon after. Still, the schedule is kinder than City’s, which includes Brentford, Palace in the rescheduled game in hand, a trip to Bournemouth, Chelsea at Wembley, and a final home match against Aston Villa.
Why City still have a route back
City are not out of the race yet because they still have a game in hand, and that makes the gap look smaller than the table alone suggests. If they beat Palace, the deficit drops to two points, and the title pressure would shift back onto Arsenal before the last round of matches.
Still, City’s path is complicated by their own fixture load and the emotional and physical demands of the season’s closing weeks. The supercomputer’s 86 per cent title prediction for Arsenal reflects that combination of Arsenal’s points lead, their stronger form, and the relative ease of their remaining fixtures.
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