Running back touchdowns remain one of the clearest betting-style projections in the NFL because volume, goal-line usage, and finishing ability often decide the race. Derrick Henry still belongs in that discussion, even after an age-31 season with the Baltimore Ravens that produced 307 carries, 1,521 rushing yards, and 16 touchdowns.
The 2025 leader is Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts with 18 touchdowns, but the touchdown crown in 2026 will likely come down to whether Henry can keep producing at an elite level and whether another back can match his red-zone role. Henry has said he does not see himself stopping soon, but he also noted he would step away if his body told him it was time, adding that he will not try to “overdo it” if he no longer feels he can compete at a high level.
Rushing touchdowns: Derrick Henry remains the safest projection
Henry has scored double-digit rushing touchdowns in each of the last eight seasons. He has also led the league in the category three times, including as recently as 2024, which gives him one of the strongest recent track records in football.
That history matters because touchdown production often follows trusted usage near the goal line. Even as age becomes a factor for most backs, Henry’s 2025 production showed that his workload and scoring touch still translate at an elite level.
Why the rushing title could still shift
Taylor’s 18-touchdown season sets a high bar, and the Colts back has already shown he can turn volume into scoring at a league-leading pace. If he keeps the same role and stays efficient near the end zone, he will remain a serious threat to repeat.
At the same time, Henry’s durability and consistency keep him in the center of the conversation. His combination of power, workload, and proven finishing ability makes him a logical pick to be among the top names again in 2026, especially if Baltimore continues to lean on him in short-yardage and scoring situations.
What the 2026 race should look like
The most likely scenario is a tight battle between established touchdown producers rather than a sudden breakout from a lesser-known runner. Henry’s recent production, Taylor’s current lead, and the importance of red-zone touches point to another season where rushing touchdowns will reward backs who stay healthy and keep earning high-value carries.
If Henry remains on the field and maintains his current efficiency, he will have a strong chance to challenge for the league lead again. Taylor, meanwhile, enters 2026 as the main benchmark, which means the touchdown race already has two proven runners at the front of the field.
Read more at: bleacherreport.com