The global smartphone market showed a modest growth of 2% year-on-year in 2025, according to Counterpoint Research. The increase was mainly driven by premiumization trends, financing options, and effective marketing strategies that boosted 5G device adoption in emerging markets.
Consumers upgraded from older models to premium smartphones, with a sharp rise in demand for 5G handsets across developing regions. Senior analyst Shilpi Jain emphasized that the market’s shift toward higher price points became more pronounced throughout the year, reflecting growing consumer willingness to invest in advanced devices.
Manufacturers accelerated shipments in the first half to counteract tariff concerns. However, these tariffs had a lighter impact than expected in the second half, easing pressure on overall volumes. Market performance varied by region, with Japan, the Middle East and Africa (MEA), and some Asia-Pacific markets offsetting weaknesses in more mature markets.
By the end of 2025, smartphone shipments grew modestly by 1% in the fourth quarter due to inventory buildup in previous quarters. Apple took the lead, capturing 25% of global shipments—its highest ever—and was followed by Samsung with a 17% share. Apple’s global market share reached 20% with a 10% annual shipment growth, the strongest among the top five brands.
Apple’s growth was propelled by expanding presence and increased demand in emerging and mid-tier markets, supported by a robust product lineup. The iPhone 17 series gained significant traction in Q4 after its successful launch while the iPhone 16 maintained strong sales in markets like Japan, India, and Southeast Asia. Analyst Varun Mishra noted that the post-pandemic upgrade cycle is fueling this momentum as millions of users plan to replace their devices.
Market Leaders in 2025
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Apple
- Market share: 20%
- Yearly shipment growth: 10%
- Key drivers: Broadened market reach, successful new models, strong performance in developing markets
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Samsung
- Market share: 19%
- Yearly shipment growth: 5%
- Key drivers: Galaxy A series’ popularity, premium Galaxy Fold7 and S25 models, strong presence in Japan and core markets despite challenges in Latin America and Western Europe
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Xiaomi
- Market share: 13%
- Performance: Stable growth supported by premiumization strategy and resilient demand in emerging regions such as Latin America and Southeast Asia
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Vivo
- Market share: 8%
- Growth: 3% year-on-year
- Growth drivers: Premiumization, strong offline execution in India, efficient portfolio targeting middle-class consumers
- OPPO
- Declined by 4% year-on-year due to weak demand in China and Asia-Pacific, despite gains in India and MEA
- Combining with Realme, projected share for the merged entity could reach 11%, positioning fourth globally
Outside the top five, brands like Nothing and Google stood out with annual growth rates of 31% and 25%, respectively.
Predictions for 2026
The smartphone market is forecasted to slow down in 2026. Counterpoint’s Director of Research, Tarun Pathak, explained the slowdown will be influenced by component shortages, especially in DRAM and NAND memory chips. Manufacturing priorities are shifting toward AI data centers rather than smartphones, pushing up component costs.
Price increases for smartphones have already begun. This supply challenge prompted Counterpoint to lower its shipment forecast for 2026 by 3%. Apple and Samsung are expected to maintain resilience due to their strong supply chains and dominance in the premium segment. Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturers focusing on the lower-price segment may face greater headwinds from cost inflation and component scarcity.
The shift in supply priorities combined with rising costs might restrain growth momentum for many brands. However, ongoing demand for premium 5G smartphones in emerging markets continues to provide opportunities for expansion. Brands that can effectively navigate supply chain challenges and meet evolving consumer preferences stand to benefit.
In summary, global smartphone shipments grew steadily in 2025, driven by premium upgrades and surging 5G adoption in developing regions. Leading players capitalized on strong product portfolios and market expansion. Yet, longer-term growth in 2026 faces risks from supply constraints and rising prices, favoring well-positioned manufacturers with robust operations and premium portfolios.