The smartphone market in Indonesia is facing a new cost shock as the rupiah weakens past Rp17,500 against the US dollar. At the same time, global shortages in chips and memory are creating pressure that could push phone prices higher in the second quarter of 2026.
Telecommunications observer and ICT Institute Executive Director Heru Sutadi said the combination of currency pressure and supply disruption is likely to squeeze industry margins. He also warned that consumer demand may soften as buyers become more cautious about upgrading devices.
Chip shortages are already affecting pricing
Heru said the smartphone industry is increasingly exposed to competition for chip supply from AI server and data center sectors. Semiconductor makers are giving priority to data center needs over consumer devices such as smartphones, laptops, and personal computers.
That shift has already led to higher prices for some devices. With supply no longer as loose as before, manufacturers are finding it harder to keep prices stable.
“Pasokan chip di dunia sedang bermasalah karena berebutan dengan data center, sehingga ini kan mempengaruhi bisnis smartphone dan ada potensi, bahkan sudah terjadi kenaikan harga karena kelangkaan chip,” Heru told Bisnis on Friday (15/5/2026).
The pressure is not limited to core components. Many smartphone production materials are still priced in US dollars, which means a weaker rupiah immediately adds to costs for manufacturers and distributors.
A weaker rupiah raises the cost base
Heru pointed to the exchange rate moving above Rp17,000 per US dollar as a key reason prices may need to be adjusted. He compared the current situation with a period when many phones were calculated using an exchange rate of Rp15,000 per US dollar.
“Kalau dulu rata-rata ponsel dihitung dengan kurs Rp15.000 per dolar AS, sekarang sudah Rp17.000 lebih. Banyak komponen dalam dollar AS sehingga mau tidak mau akan ada penyesuaian harga,” he said.
In practical terms, this means brands may need to revisit pricing across different smartphone segments. Devices that depend heavily on imported components are expected to feel the strongest impact because their production costs are rising faster.
Demand may also cool in the second quarter
The pricing pressure is arriving alongside a softer buying mood. Heru said many consumers are likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach, especially if their current phones are still usable.
That behavior could slow smartphone sales in the second quarter of 2026. When prices climb while purchasing power has not fully recovered, buyers tend to delay replacement decisions unless they truly need a new handset.
This makes the market more fragile for vendors. They have to manage higher input costs while facing customers who are more selective about when to spend.
Local policy issues add another layer
Beyond global supply and currency movements, the domestic smartphone industry is also watching the issue of TKDN, or local content requirements. Heru highlighted concerns over the possibility of 0% import duty facilities for Apple products, which some industry players see as unfair.
Several manufacturers that have already built assembly facilities in Indonesia are said to feel the policy is not balanced. Heru said this concern reflects broader worries that uneven incentives could influence investment direction in the country.
“Kalau mereka menganggap ini ada ketidakadilan,” Heru said when explaining the reaction from some manufacturers. He added that if TKDN implementation is viewed as unequal, companies may prefer to build training centers or academies instead of expanding manufacturing investment in Indonesia.
Global smartphone pressure remains broad
The challenges are not isolated to Indonesia. The global smartphone industry is still dealing with high costs and intense competition, especially in the lower-priced segment.
Even so, Samsung and Apple were the only two among the top five vendors to post year-on-year growth. Samsung led the market with 62.8 million units shipped and a 21.7% share, up 3.6% from 60.6 million units a year earlier.
Apple followed in second place with 61.1 million units shipped and a 21.1% share, growing 3.3% year on year from 59.1 million units. Xiaomi recorded the steepest decline among the top five, with shipments falling to 33.8 million units and a 11.7% share, down 19.1% from 41.8 million units.
OPPO slipped to 30.7 million units, while vivo posted 21.2 million units. Overall global smartphone shipments in the first quarter of 2026 reached 289.7 million units, down 4.1% from 302.0 million units in the same period a year earlier.
Those figures suggest that cost pressure, supply tightness, and weaker demand may continue shaping the smartphone market in the months ahead.