Alex Ovechkin has reached 911 regular-season goals and is widely regarded as the greatest goal scorer in NHL history. Despite this achievement, certain circumstances have kept him from surpassing the 1,000-goal milestone, which would place him far ahead of Wayne Gretzky’s 894 goals.
Three key factors contributed to this shortfall. The 2012-2013 NHL lockout cost Ovechkin 22 potential goals. Additionally, the COVID-19-shortened seasons in 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 reduced his total by approximately 22 goals combined.
Injuries and missed games also affected his tally. Ovechkin missed 76 games due to injuries, suspensions, or other reasons, which translates to around 45 goals he could have scored based on his regular pace. A leg injury in the last season was particularly detrimental, likely costing him 11 goals.
Coaching decisions played a significant role as well. In the 2016-2017 season, when Barry Trotz reduced Ovechkin’s ice time by nearly two minutes per game, he finished with 33 goals rather than an expected 50. Similarly, Dale Hunter’s defensive system in 2012-2013 limited Ovechkin’s scoring opportunities, contributing to a career slump.
Empty-net goals are another overlooked factor. In recent years, Ovechkin’s rate of empty-net goals increased from 0.03 to 0.09 per game. If this had been consistent throughout his career, he would have added 69 more goals.
Considering these missed opportunities, Ovechkin’s goal total could have been about 1,025 without lockouts, shortened seasons, injuries, or coaching restrictions. Removing the 2004-2005 lockout season also ignores a potential 40-50 goals he might have scored as a young player.
These insights reveal that while Ovechkin’s current goal count is historic, various uncontrollable factors prevented him from breaching the 1,000-goal barrier sooner. If circumstances were ideal, he might already be setting an even more unbreakable record.
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