France has moved to the front of Opta’s World Cup 2026 simulation, overtaking the other semifinalists at a decisive stage of the tournament. The supercomputer now rates Les Bleus as the strongest favorite to reach the final and lift the trophy.
England still remains firmly in the race, but the projections place them behind France in the title picture. With four heavyweights still alive, the race to the final is being shaped by two high-stakes semifinals and very narrow margins.
Two semifinal showdowns will decide the path to the title
France are set to face Spain at Dallas Stadium on Wednesday, July 15, in Indonesia time, while England meet Argentina at Atlanta Stadium on Thursday, July 16. According to TNTSports, the presence of these four teams in the last four is not a major surprise because Opta had already listed them among the strongest contenders from the start.
Spain were originally projected as the most likely champions, followed by France, England, and Argentina. That order has shifted as the tournament has progressed, with France now rising thanks to a dominant run powered by Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, and Michael Olise.
| Team | Chance to Reach Final | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| France | 57.70 percent | 34.05 percent |
| Spain | 42.30 percent | 23.45 percent |
| England | 50.94 percent | 21.94 percent |
| Argentina | 49.06 percent | 20.55 percent |
On paper, France have a 57.70 percent chance of getting past Spain and reaching the final. Opta also gives them a 34.05 percent chance of winning the World Cup, the highest title probability among the remaining four teams.
Spain remain France’s closest challenger in the first semifinal, with a 42.30 percent chance to advance to the final and a 23.45 percent chance of claiming a second world title. Even after slipping behind France in the latest projection, Luis de la Fuente’s side still sits among the main contenders.
England’s path is open, but Argentina carry the lowest odds
England’s numbers keep them in contention, with a 50.94 percent chance of making the final and a 21.94 percent chance of ending a 60-year wait for the trophy. The supercomputer places the Three Lions third among the four teams in the championship race.
Argentina, meanwhile, have the lowest chances of the semifinalists. Lionel Messi and his teammates are given a 49.06 percent chance of beating England and just a 20.55 percent chance of defending their crown.
That leaves France in the most favorable position heading into the semifinal round. With both pairings featuring elite opposition, the path to the final remains tightly balanced, but the latest Opta projection now puts France at the top of the race.
