A derelict SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage is now on a trajectory that may end with an impact on the Moon, turning an abandoned piece of launch hardware into an unusual object of scientific interest. The expected strike is projected for 5 August 2026 and would happen at hypersonic speed, around 8,700 kilometers per hour, or roughly seven times the speed of sound.
The object is not part of a planned lunar landing. Its path became irregular after the launch on 15 January 2025, when the upper stage drifted away from its intended route and continued moving through cislunar space instead of returning to the expected trajectory.
That launch carried two commercial lunar landers, Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost and ispace’s Resilience. Blue Ghost later reached the Moon in March 2025, but the 13.8-meter Falcon 9 upper stage did not follow the route that had been expected after separation.
Astronomer Bill Gray, who created the Project Pluto tracking software, has been monitoring the debris through more than 1,000 observations. His analysis shows an orbit stretched to extremes, with the closest point about 220,000 kilometers from Earth and the farthest point about 510,000 kilometers away in cislunar space.
Gray says the rocket’s path and the Moon’s orbit now intersect. Because both objects are expected to reach the same crossing point at the same time, he considers an impact effectively unavoidable.
The predicted time of impact is now set at 02.44 ET on 5 August 2026, which corresponds to 13.44 WIB. The most likely location is inside or near Einstein Crater on the Moon’s near side, the hemisphere facing Earth.
Gray expects the forecast to become more precise as the date approaches. He believes the final impact point and timing could eventually be mapped in fine detail, down to within a few tens of meters and fractions of a second.
The collision will not be visible through ordinary telescopes from Earth. Even so, the event is expected to matter for science because it should create a small fresh crater and eject lunar surface material.
That material could help researchers study the composition of the Moon’s upper layers. The impact also offers another chance to observe how human-made objects behave when they strike at very high speed.
Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, or LRO, is also expected to capture the new crater. If the observation proceeds as planned, it would add more data about the physical traces left on the Moon by human space debris.
What makes this event notable is not only the distance involved but the extreme speed. A rocket stage that once belonged to a launch mission is now set to become a rare scientific target when it meets the lunar surface in a hypersonic impact.
