Game 5 arrives with the Western Conference Finals tied 2-2, and the series has already swung from one storyline to another. San Antonio answered with a 103-82 win in Game 4, turning the matchup back into a blank slate as Oklahoma City coach Mark Daigneault put it: “There’s a reason we talk about getting to zero every game.”
That reset makes Tuesday’s game at 8 ET on NBC/Peacock especially important. The Thunder and Spurs have already shown that small shifts in execution, health and defensive pressure can change the tone of the series quickly.
1. The Wembanyama-Holmgren matchup can tilt the game
Victor Wembanyama has already shown both ends of his range in this series, from his huge Game 1 performance to a quieter stretch in Games 2 and 3 and then a strong bounce-back in Game 4. He finished that game with 33 points, eight rebounds, five assists, three blocks and two steals, which gave San Antonio the kind of centerpiece production it needs.
The Thunder have made it clear that limiting Wembanyama’s touches near the rim is a priority, because that is where the 7-foot-4 forward is hardest to stop. Chet Holmgren sits at the center of that battle on both ends, and his efficiency matters because Oklahoma City does not need a huge scoring night from him, only a productive one.
That has not come consistently so far. In the Thunder’s two losses in the conference finals, Holmgren has shot 33.3%, while he has hit 58.8% in the two wins.
2. Defense is not just a strength here, it is the whole identity
Both teams entered the series with elite defensive reputations, and that has shaped almost every possession. Oklahoma City finished with the No. 1 defense in the regular season, while San Antonio ranked No. 3, and both rosters include multiple All-Defense-level players.
Wembanyama won his first Kia Defensive Player of the Year award and was unanimously named to the All-Defensive First Team. Holmgren also made the first team, and Thunder guard Cason Wallace earned second-team recognition.
The result has been a series defined by pressure, turnovers and difficult shot creation. In Game 4, Oklahoma City committed 20 turnovers, shot 33% from the field and went 6-for-33 from 3-point range, a sign of how much San Antonio disrupted the Thunder’s flow.
Spurs guard Stephon Castle has also had a clear impact on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. When Castle defended him, the MVP was held to six points on 2-for-6 shooting, a reminder of how much individual defense can matter in a matchup like this.
3. Injuries are still shaping the Thunder’s rotation
Health has influenced both sides at different points in the series, but Oklahoma City now feels the strain most directly. Jalen Williams remains a game-time decision after re-aggravating a strained left hamstring, and his absence has removed one of the Thunder’s most versatile scorers and playmakers.
Williams has averaged 17.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.3 steals in the playoffs, so his status affects more than just scoring. Ajay Mitchell is also out after suffering a strained right calf in Game 3, and he has averaged 15.1 points and 4.3 assists in the playoffs.
That combination puts more pressure on the rest of Oklahoma City’s rotation to produce offense and handle the ball under stress. Daigneault said after Game 4 that the Thunder’s problems were not just about one player, noting that “the global approach offensively didn’t benefit anybody,” and that Game 5 will require a much cleaner collective response.
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